G7 4504 · ORD → FSD

departs 8:40 AM CT · arrives 10:22 AM CT

Your aircraft is N578GJ (CRJ7), coming in as G7 4194 from BHM: landed 8:08 AM CT.

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?

95% chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to FSD?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at FSD that day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Arrivals into FSD at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FSD (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G7 4504 · ORD → FSD

Odds over time

How late will it get to FSD?