G7 4551 · FSD → ORD

departs 6:01 AM CT · arrives 7:47 AM CT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at FSD that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

FSD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.12 in

ORD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G7 4551 · FSD → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?