Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
GOJET · FLIGHT G7 4611
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Yesterday
G7 4611 · IAD → ROC
departs 10:19 PM ET · arrives 11:38 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Fri 10/30 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at ROC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ROC?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from IAD are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ROC
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 10,314 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
ROC (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.