Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
IBERIA · FLIGHT IB 351
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
IB 351 · MAD → LAX
departs 1:16 PM CET · arrives 5:47 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/30 16%
Sun 11/1 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave MAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MAD
Weather at each end
MAD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.