Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
IBERIA · FLIGHT IB 376
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
IB 376 · IAD → MAD
departs 8:26 PM ET · arrives 8:48 AM CET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at MAD more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at MAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MAD?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
IAD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
MAD (destination)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.