JL 65 · SAN → NRT

took off 1:47 PM PT · expected to land 5:14 PM JST (scheduled 1:00 PM PT → 5:13 PM JST)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at NRT more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to NRT?

LIVE

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

NRT (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

JL 65 · SAN → NRT

Odds over time

How late will it get to NRT?