JL 799 · HNL → KIX

took off 11:47 AM HT · expected to land 3:10 PM JST (scheduled 11:31 AM HT → 3:33 PM JST)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at KIX more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to KIX?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.7 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into KIX at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.66 in

KIX (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

JL 799 · HNL → KIX

Odds over time

How late will it get to KIX?