LH 401 · JFK → FRA

took off 7:44 PM ET · expected to land 7:15 AM CET (scheduled 5:20 PM ET → 5:23 AM CET)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at FRA more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to FRA?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
54%
Over 2 hours late
46%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ JFK is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FRA (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

LH 401 · JFK → FRA

Odds over time

How late will it get to FRA?