Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LUFTHANSA · FLIGHT LH 404
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
LH 404 · FRA → JFK
departs 5:14 PM CET · arrives 8:47 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 16%
Thu 10/29 25%
Fri 10/30 43%
Sat 10/31 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave FRA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FRA
Weather at each end
FRA (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.