Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LUFTHANSA · FLIGHT LH 408
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Yesterday
LH 408 · FRA → RDU
departs 10:19 AM CET · arrives 2:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 14h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 15%
Thu 10/29 18%
Fri 10/30 21%
Sat 10/31 24%
Mon 11/2 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.2d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave FRA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
10am departures from FRA are often late
↑
LH's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FRA
↓
Visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at RDU that day
Weather at each end
FRA (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
RDU (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.