LH 415 · IAD → MUC

took off 11:45 PM ET · expected to land 12:07 PM CET (scheduled 12:05 AM ET → 12:53 PM CET)

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at MUC more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MUC?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Other factors

↑ LH's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MUC

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MUC (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

LH 415 · IAD → MUC

Odds over time

How late will it get to MUC?