Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LUFTHANSA · FLIGHT LH 432
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Yesterday
LH 432 · FRA → ORD
departs 5:19 PM CET · arrives 8:34 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 19%
Thu 10/29 23%
Fri 10/30 26%
Sat 10/31 35%
Mon 11/2 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±3 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave FRA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FRA
Weather at each end
FRA (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
ORD (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.