LH 455 · SFO → FRA

took off 4:05 PM PT · expected to land 9:58 AM CET (scheduled 4:10 PM PT → 10:45 AM CET)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at FRA more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to FRA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ SFO is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FRA (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

LH 455 · SFO → FRA

Odds over time

How late will it get to FRA?