Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LUFTHANSA · FLIGHT LH 488
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
LH 488 · MUC → SEA
departs 3:34 PM CET · arrives 5:42 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 19%
Fri 10/30 26%
Sun 11/1 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.4d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MUC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at SEA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MUC
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MUC (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.