Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LUFTHANSA · FLIGHT LH 490
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
LH 490 · FRA → SEA
departs 10:44 AM CET · arrives 1:15 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 18%
Thu 10/29 17%
Fri 10/30 24%
Sat 10/31 24%
Sun 11/1 23%
Mon 11/2 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.2d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave FRA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
10am departures from FRA are often late
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FRA
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
FRA (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.