Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LUFTHANSA · FLIGHT LH 491
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
LH 491 · SEA → FRA
departs 2:26 PM PT · arrives 8:32 AM CET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 13%
Thu 10/29 13%
Fri 10/30 19%
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 21%
Mon 11/2 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at FRA more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FRA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at FRA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FRA?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
2pm departures from SEA are often late
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FRA
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.05 in
FRA (destination)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.