Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

LOT · FLIGHT LO 27 LANDED 12:34 PM CET, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, October 27 Today

LO 27 · JFK → WAW

took off 12:21 AM ET · landed 12:34 PM CET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at WAW more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 10pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ JFK is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

WAW (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

LO 27 · JFK → WAW

Odds over time