Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3490
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
MQ 3490 · DFW → FAR
departs 8:30 AM CT · arrives 11:21 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 8%
Thu 10/29 9%
Fri 10/30 15%
Sat 10/31 16%
Sun 11/1 12%
Mon 11/2 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at FAR more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FAR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at FAR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FAR?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at FAR that day
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
FAR (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.