Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3490
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Yesterday
MQ 3490 · FAR → DFW
departs 11:46 AM CT · arrives 2:35 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Today 17%
Thu 10/29 11%
Fri 10/30 12%
Sat 10/31 16%
Sun 11/1 15%
Mon 11/2 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave FAR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at FAR that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
FAR usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
FAR (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.15 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.