Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3644
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Yesterday
MQ 3644 · PHX → GJT
departs 4:24 PM MT · arrives 6:59 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Today 10%
Sat 10/31 15%
Mon 11/2 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at GJT more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GJT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at GJT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GJT?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
GJT (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.