Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3787
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Yesterday
MQ 3787 · DFW → MFE
departs 5:55 PM CT · arrives 7:32 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Today 12%
Thu 10/29 33%
Fri 10/30 25%
Sat 10/31 25%
Sun 11/1 28%
Mon 11/2 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at MFE more than 15 minutes late?
21%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
21%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MFE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at MFE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MFE?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MFE (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.