Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3880
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Yesterday
MQ 3880 · DFW → GRK
departs 5:27 PM CT · arrives 6:28 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Today 9%
Fri 10/30 19%
Sun 11/1 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at GRK more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GRK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at GRK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to GRK?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
GRK (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.