Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3927
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Yesterday
MQ 3927 · DFW → LEX
departs 4:04 PM CT · arrives 7:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Today 10%
Thu 10/29 28%
Fri 10/30 15%
Sat 10/31 19%
Sun 11/1 22%
Mon 11/2 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at LEX more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at LEX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LEX?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LEX
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LEX (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.