MQ 4014 · MRY → PHX

took off 4:19 PM PT · landed 5:49 PM MT (scheduled 4:12 PM PT → 6:14 PM MT)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to PHX?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ MRY is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MRY

Weather at each end

MRY (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4014 · MRY → PHX

Odds over time

How late did it get to PHX?