Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4056
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Yesterday
MQ 4056 · DFW → LBB
departs 10:35 PM CT · arrives 11:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Today 15%
Thu 10/29 31%
Fri 10/30 25%
Sat 10/31 17%
Sun 11/1 23%
Mon 11/2 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at LBB more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LBB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at LBB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LBB?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
Arrivals into LBB at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LBB (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.25 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.