Schedule: FAA flight plans.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4102 DELAYED: NOW PLANNED TO TAKE OFF 9:22 AM MT (15 MIN LATER THAN FIRST FILED)

Tuesday, October 27 Today

MQ 4102 · DEN → ORD

departs 9:00 AM MT · arrives 12:34 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

29% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling11,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4102 · DEN → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?