Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4187
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Yesterday
MQ 4187 · DFW → LFT
departs 6:18 PM CT · arrives 7:51 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Today 16%
Thu 10/29 31%
Fri 10/30 20%
Sat 10/31 21%
Sun 11/1 27%
Mon 11/2 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at LFT more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LFT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at LFT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LFT?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LFT
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LFT (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 8.85714 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.