MX 1004 · MCO → AVP

took off 3:37 PM ET · landed 5:45 PM ET (scheduled 3:17 PM ET → 6:00 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at AVP more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to AVP?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AVP

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts31 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AVP (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MX 1004 · MCO → AVP

Odds over time

How late did it get to AVP?