MX 1866 · LAX → RIC

took off 1:35 PM PT · landed 9:10 PM ET (scheduled 1:23 PM PT → 9:55 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to RIC?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ LAX is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RIC

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

RIC (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MX 1866 · LAX → RIC

Odds over time

How late did it get to RIC?