Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 1866
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
MX 1866 · RIC → BDL
departs 10:10 PM ET · arrives 11:44 PM ET
Your aircraft is N262BZ (BCS3), coming in as MX 1866 from LAX: landed 9:10 PM ET.
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 18%
Sun 11/1 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at BDL more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
+15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +32 pts in 24h
+32 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at BDL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to BDL?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
RIC is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into BDL at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RIC
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BDL
Weather at each end
RIC (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BDL (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.