MX 1893 · BTV → BWI

departs 5:20 PM ET · arrives 7:03 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BTV

Weather at each end

BTV (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MX 1893 · BTV → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?