NH 8417 · LAX → NRT

departs 10:55 AM PT · arrives 2:56 PM JST

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at NRT more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±2 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to NRT?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from LAX are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

NRT (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

NH 8417 · LAX → NRT

Odds over time

How late will it get to NRT?