Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5153 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27 Yesterday

OH 5153 · SYR → PHL

departs 6:20 PM ET · arrives 7:47 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SYR

Weather at each end

SYR (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5153 · SYR → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?