Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5189 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27 Yesterday

OH 5189 · PVD → PHL

departs 7:29 PM ET · arrives 9:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PVD

Weather at each end

PVD (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5189 · PVD → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?