Schedule: FAA flight plans.

SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3300 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Tuesday, October 27

OO 3300 · SAN → AUS

took off 2:21 PM PT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 2:12 PM PT → 7:14 PM CT)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3300 · SAN → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?