Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4642
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
OO 4642 · BFL → SFO
departs 10:02 AM PT · arrives 11:29 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/31 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±0 pts
+14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
29%
Arrive 1h+ late
24%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave BFL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BFL
Weather at each end
BFL (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.