Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4653
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27
OO 4653 · BFL → SFO
departs 4:19 PM PT · arrives 5:35 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Today 42%
Sun 11/1 35%
Mon 11/2 24%
Thu 11/5 57%
Fri 11/6 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave BFL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BFL (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 4 mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.