Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4654
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27
OO 4654 · BZN → DEN
departs 10:44 AM MT · arrives 12:53 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Today 26%
Sat 10/31 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave BZN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.13 mi forecast at DEN that day
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BZN
↓
BZN usually runs smoothly
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BZN (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.03 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.13 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.