Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4695
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27
OO 4695 · SFO → ACV
departs 9:00 PM PT · arrives 10:17 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 22%
Thu 11/5 38%
Fri 11/6 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at ACV more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ACV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at ACV more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ACV?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↑
9pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ACV (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.