Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5206
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27
OO 5206 · ORD → SBN
departs 7:04 PM CT · arrives 8:52 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at SBN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBN?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
SBN (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 11,857 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.