Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5264
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27
OO 5264 · IAH → XNA
departs 2:43 PM CT · arrives 4:36 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at XNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to XNA?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.8 in of rain forecast at IAH that day
↑
2pm departures from IAH are often late
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at XNA
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.32 in
XNA (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.