Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5289
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27
OO 5289 · SFO → ABQ
departs 6:46 PM PT · arrives 10:28 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Today 17%
Sun 11/1 25%
Mon 11/2 22%
Thu 11/5 34%
Fri 11/6 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at ABQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ABQ?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SFO is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ABQ (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.