OO 5519 · CRQ → SFO

departs 11:31 AM -03 · arrives 9:15 AM PT

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts +17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ 11am departures from CRQ are usually not late

Weather at each end

CRQ (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5519 · CRQ → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?