OO 5892 · MRY → SFO

departs 10:21 AM PT · arrives 11:23 AM PT

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
14%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MRY

Weather at each end

MRY (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5892 · MRY → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?