OO 6204 · PHX → ELP

took off 4:44 PM MT · landed 6:36 PM MT (scheduled 4:21 PM MT → 6:46 PM MT)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ELP?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ELP (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 6204 · PHX → ELP

Odds over time

How late did it get to ELP?