Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 6319 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27

OO 6319 · DFW → FSM

departs 6:24 PM CT · arrives 7:46 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at FSM more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to FSM?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FSM (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 6319 · DFW → FSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to FSM?