Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 9790 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27

OO 9790 · PHX → SAN

departs 2:14 PM MT · arrives 3:47 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 9790 · PHX → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?