Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PORTER · FLIGHT PD 2129
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
PD 2129 · YTZ → EWR
departs 11:09 AM EDT · arrives 1:12 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 7h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 11%
Thu 10/29 16%
Fri 10/30 34%
Sat 10/31 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave YTZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↑
YTZ is busy at that time
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
Weather at each end
YTZ (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.