Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PORTER · FLIGHT PD 2142
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
PD 2142 · EWR → YTZ
departs 7:14 PM ET · arrives 9:22 PM EDT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 16%
Thu 10/29 23%
Fri 10/30 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at YTZ more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YTZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at YTZ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to YTZ?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
7pm departures from EWR are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
YTZ (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.