Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PORTER · FLIGHT PD 2387
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
PD 2387 · YTZ → MDW
departs 10:09 AM EDT · arrives 11:05 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 8%
Thu 10/29 9%
Fri 10/30 12%
Sat 10/31 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave YTZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at YTZ
↑
PD's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Arrivals into MDW at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
YTZ (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.